Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, August 4th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, extending overnight gains. Stocks are mixed but calm with the Dow down 4 points and the Nasdaq up 31 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32 (0.51%), again testing a new record low closing yield if this morning’s gains hold until the end of the day. This should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

12/32


Bonds


30 yr - 0.51%

4


Dow


26,659

31


NASDAQ


10.934

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Negative


Factory Orders

June's Factory Orders report was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning, revealing a 6.2% rise in new orders. This was stronger than the 5.2% increase that was expected and indicates strength in the manufacturing sector but was not enough of a variance to cause much concern in the bond market or derail this morning’s early bond gains.

Medium


Unknown


ADP Employment

Tomorrow has a single relevant economic report that may influence rates. That will be July's ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs, using their payroll processing clients as a base. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not very accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a noticeable reaction to the report, it is on this week's calendar. Forecasts show an increase of 1.8 million new payrolls as businesses and states continued to reopen from the pandemic shutdown. The bond and mortgage markets would prefer to see a smaller increase.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


Heather Smith

Illustrated Properties 125 Worth Avenue, Suite 202
Palm Beach, FL 33480-4094